Publications in high school systems
Peer-reviewed publications are available from the publications sites provided.
2025
The South African Journal of Industrial Engineering, 36(2), pp. 105–118
Persistent socio-economic disparities in the South African education system hinder learner progression. This study examines the factors shaping learner adaptation across socio-economic divides in public high schools, focusing on the contrasting experiences of learners from lower-income backgrounds in different school environments. Using data from the 2022 General Household Survey, the study applies factor analysis, multiple regression analysis, structural equation modelling, and machine-learning techniques to identify key determinants of learner progression, such as family structure, supported retention, welfare income, and household conditions. The findings show the significant role of school meals, age-appropriate grade placement, and consistent attendance in academic success. These insights point to the need for targeted, context-sensitive interventions to address the socio-economic barriers to educational achievement in post-apartheid South Africa.
2025
South African Journal for Science and Technology 2025; 44(1), pp. 64-74
This study develops a refi ned factor relationship mapping for learner progression in South African public high schools, with a specifi c focus on the Western Cape and Gauteng. Using data from the 2019 General Household Survey, quantitative techniques such as factor analysis, multilevel regression analysis and structural equation modelling were applied to analyse the relationships between socio-economic status, health, household conditions and school factors. This study not only identifi es important factors, but also quantifi es the relationship links between these variables and their combined infl uence on learner progression.Results show that stable family structures and higher household wealth are positively associated with improved academic outcomes, while low food insecurity and reliable utilities promote learner retention. Socio-economic status plays a key role inlearner progression, revealing the importance of stable home environments. Although health appears less prominent as a direct factor, environmental factors such as food insecurity and household affl uence appear to be stronger predictors of learner outcomes than previously thought.This relationship model provides valuable insights for policy interventions to reduce learner dropout and improve academic performance in South African high schools. It reveals the need for improved household conditions as part of a broader strategy to strengthen learner outcomes.
2024
The South African Journal of Industrial Engineering, 35(3), pp. 15–27
The South African high school education system faces numerous challenges, including high dropout rates and unequal educational outcomes, calling for innovative methods to analyse and address these problems. This study employs an integrated approach that merges machine learning and agent-based modelling to simulate learner progression in public high schools, illuminating the critical factors that influence educational outcomes. Using data from the 2019 General Household Survey in South Africa, factor analysis is first conducted to identify and quantify the principal characteristics defining learners. These features then train an XGBoost machine learning model, which is integrated within an agent-based framework to simulate learner progression from Grades 8 to Grade 12. Validating the model against the Learner Unit Record Information and Tracking System dataset resulted in a root square error of 2.95%, which is indicative of the model's ability to predict learner progression. Overall, the model represents a significant advancement in the field of educational simulation, serving as a practical tool for schools to analyse and improve learner outcomes through analytical decision-making.
Working papers in high school systems
The working papers, research projects, theses and dissertations listed are being prepared for publication.
A systems perspective on education systems design and policy: The High School Model
2020
The South African education system is in crisis. On average, South Africa has the worst education system of all middle-income countries and perform worse than many lower-income African countries. The South African Department of Basic Education released an action plan with 27 goals towards the realization of a functional system by 2030. Two of these goals are considered priority: Improve the average performance of Grade 9 learners in mathematics and ensure that all children remain effectively enrolled in school at least up to the year in which they turn 15. This project aims to build a system dynamics simulation model with which to analyze the impact of this goal on the Western Cape high school system. In so doing we may discover the feedback loops and possible unintended consequences of the goal that intuitively appears helpful but may prove to be unhelpful.
